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Monday, April 16, 2012

The Hot Real Estate Market in Lincoln

I frequently have people ask me, "Is anything at all selling right now?"  My answer so far this year is, "Absolutely!"

A few years ago, we had around 2,500 homes listed in the MLS in Lincoln and the surrounding areas - today, we have fewer than 1,500.  One of the measures of the real estate market in our area is the Absorption Rate.  This measurement is derived from dividing the number of homes in a specific price range by the number sold in the previous 12 months.  In essence, it tells us how long the supply of homes would last, if no new listings appeared.  This doesn't give us an "average time on market", but it does serve as a rough measure of activity.  An absorption rate of more than 6 (as in more than a six month supply in a given price range) means we're in a buyer's market - there are plenty of homes listed, and buyers can take their time and, due to the slow activity, have more leverage in negotiations.

A couple of years ago, the absorption rate was consistently over 6, and sometimes even higher.  Now, in price ranges lower than $350,000, it's below 6, and a number of categories are around 4.  What does this mean in the real world?  It means if you're buying a house, you'd better be prepared to move quickly when you find your dream home.  Recently, I worked with a couple looking for a home in one of the "hot" price ranges - between $175,000 and $200,000.  Five or six times, homes sold before we could get an appointment to view them.  When we found the right home for them, we faced the prospect of facing multiple offers - effectively ending any thoughts of trying to buy for significantly less than the list price.

I'm seeing the same thing play out over and over - last night I was showing homes in another price range, and out of six homes on the list, one had a "Sold" sign when we pulled up in front.  I've also seen some of my listings sell very quickly, including two that sold on the first day on the market!  While prices are still down slightly from their highs of a few years ago, we are now definitely in a Seller's Market.  That's great news if you want to see the real estate market recover - if homes sell quickly (and especially if we start to see multiple offers), sellers will begin to receive prices closer to their asking price, and values will begin to creep up.  This should also help new construction, since new homes will be needed to fill demand.

Our economy is still weak.  As it improves, we'll start to see real estate take off.  What I'm seeing now is an indication that we're working our way out of the hole.

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Crappie Time!

We spent most of the past week at our lake home in Missouri.  The weather wasn't perfect, but we were able to do most of what we wanted to do - mainly golf and fishing.  The golf was fun, but not as successful as the fishing.
Every spring, when the water warms up over 50 degrees, the crappie spawn occurs.  Crappies are large pan fish that are valued for their tasty fillets (crappies are one of the best fish to eat - white, flaky meat, very mild).  During the spawn, they are especially active, and can be caught in the shallows near shore, where they feed on small minnows and bugs.  They're very active, and can be a lot of fun to catch.  We use light tackle (4 pound test line with lightweight spinning tackle), and small, weedless jigs - casting up into the rocks from the boat. 
I'm not the world's greatest fisherman, but we're learning the tricks, and we've been able to keep the freezer stocked with enough fish to eat (crappies in the spring, and catfish later in the summer, when it gets hot).  I've heard stories of people catching 50 or 100 crappies in a couple of hours, but we've never done anything like that.  Over the past weekend, we caught a couple dozen keepers on two trips of about 3 hours or so each time.  There's a minimum size limit of 9", so we threw back about as many fish as we caught.  Most of our fish were between 10" and 13", so we had some nice fish.
As I say, we're learning the tricks, but we still have a lot to learn.  We did, however, get the chance to watch a real pro fish - and this guy rarely misses!  Where we go from place to place, with little thought as to where we'll have the best luck, this guy carefully selects his spot.  He fishes the shallows - actually stalking his prey by walking slowly along the shore line until he sees the one he wants.  He moves so deliberately that the fish never see him until it's too late. When he's ready, he strikes so quickly that the fish is in his beak before they know what's hit them!
Wait a minute - did I say beak?  Yes, this professional fisherman is a Great Blue Heron - the ultimate professional fisherman at Lake of the Ozarks. Think about it, he's got no second income and no endorsement deals - if he doesn't catch fish, he doesn't eat.  You can't get much more professional than that!
As I watched the heron fish, I couldn't help but think about how perfectly adapted this bird is to catch fish.  He's got long, skinny legs - perfect for sneaking up on fish in the shallows.  They're so stick-like, they don't disturb the water at all, and I'm sure they look like a weed or tree branch in the water.  When he finds his prey, his long neck - coiled while stalking - uncoils and he strikes with snakelike speed.  His long beak grabs and holds the fish, killing it so he can swallow it.
Of course, I had to stop Theresa from rushing out there to tell our heron to leave "her" fish alone (she also wants to chase off the human fishermen), but once we got past that, it was fun to watch this big bird catch his dinner.  He rarely misses, and he's patient enough to stand motionless until the time is right.  He never catches more than he can eat, and he never throws gut-hooked fish back in the water to die.  No fancy equipment to buy - he doesn't even need a license!




Friday, March 30, 2012

Coach Ron Brown or Why Bigotry Stinks, Even When Covered by Religion

Recently, Husker assistant football coach Ron Brown has made headlines with his outspoken comments on gay rights.  He spoke against a proposed ordinance (since passed) in Omaha that banned discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.  At the time, Brown stated he's "not in favor of discrimination", but didn't think homosexuals should receive "special privileges".  While testifying, he gave his address as "1 Memorial Stadium", prompting a mild public rebuke by chancelor Harvey Perlman. 

In the follow-up to this issue, Brown has refused to back down from his beliefs, stating "They tell me to stick to my place and shut up," He also said, "Biblical truth is at stake, Nebraska is teeter-tottering, and could go either way."  He frames the issue as one between right and wrong, and all about religious freedom.

Ron Brown is wrong on every level.  His views are based in bigotry and prejudice, and his viewpoints are not only contrary to University policy, they make him unsuitable for his job working with college students. 

You can not logically be against discrimination of a group and be opposed to making such discrimination illegal.  Many conservative people like to talk about consequences for behavior - anti-discrimination laws allow consequences to be applied to illegal behavior. 

In addition, what special privileges are we granting people?  The right to hold a job?  Get married?  Rent or buy a place to live?  In what way are those things different than what you and I take for granted every day?  Keep in mind, no one is saying you have to hire a gay or lesbian person if they're not the most qualified - you just can't deny them employment because of their sexual orientation.  Why should we oppose anyone deciding to share their life with the person of their choice?  How is this any different than refusing to hire someone because of their race or religion?

Some people are "uncomfortable" being around someone who is gay.  So what?  Does that mean they shouldn't be able to move in to your apartment building?  What if they're uncomfortable around African-Americans - should they also be able to refuse to rent to blacks?  Let's make this clear:  your level of discomfort is YOUR problem - don't expect someone else to pay a price to make you feel more at ease.

How about religious freedom?  Is Ron Brown being persecuted for his beliefs?  His beliefs are his business, but his BEHAVIOR is subject to scrutiny.  How many of us would be allowed to publicly challenge our employer's policies?  I learned long ago that there is a time and a place to disagree with the boss - and that time and place is NOT in a public forum.  Add to that the fact that Mr. brown is in a position to have great influence and visibility regarding this issue, and it's clear he's stepped over the line.

Mr. Brown has been coaching at Nebraska for about 22 years, having virtually unlimited contact with the entire team of over 100 young men, in addition to his contact with fans and school students due to his speaking engagements.  Of the thousands of those young people he's addressed, how many were homosexual - 100?  200?  More?  Who knows - what can't be disputed is that whatever the number, there's a price paid when this role model, this person they look up to, insists that they are immoral - that their behavior is evil.  Again, change the bigotry to that against a racial or ethnic minority, and it's clear the university wouldn't put up with it.  Why is this any different?

People talk about the right to free speech.  I agree with this right - it's one of the most important rights in a free society - the right to speak up, even when you disagree with the government or society in general - but the right is not absolute, and it doesn't insulate you from the consequences of your beliefs.  If you feel strongly about something, speak up.  If you are in a position that represents a public university, expressing bigoted, evil beliefs may result in the loss of your job.  Ron Brown has reached the point where his continued, public statements negatively impact the University of Nebraska and the athletic department.  He should continue spreading his small-minded bigotry as a private citizen.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Lake Home Sun Room Addition, Step One - Decision and Planning

I've talked before about some home improvement projects, mainly the window replacement at our home.  Most of the projects I do these days are pretty minor - even the windows weren't a big deal - but I have recently tackled a larger project.  Enclosing our porch at the lake wasn't a weekend job - it took a lot of planning, and a significant amount of construction time.  Since it was a big project, I'll break my post into several sections - Making the Decision and Planning, Demo and Framing, and Finish Work.  I'll put a few photos in to illustrate my points, but you can view the whole project, more or less in chronological order, on Picasa.  This won't be a step-by-step instruction that will enable someone with no experience to do the project, but it will give you a good idea of the process I followed.

Before we begin, let's make a couple of things clear.  Always follow all applicable building codes.  If you don't know how to do something, consider getting help - either a professional or a friend with plenty of skills and experience.  Don't guess about how to do something - it's a lot cheaper to hire someone to do it right the first time than it is to have them fix it after you've messed it all up.  Does that all make sense?  OK, now we can start the discussion.

We bought our home on Lake of the Ozarks in central Missouri in 2005.  One of the features we loved when we picked it out was the screened porch on the "lake side" of the house.  The porch is long and narrow - approximately 32'X 7'.  The floor of the second floor deck is waterproof, so I didn't need to worry about a roof, and each end had a metal storm door.  The deck above is supported by 6"X6" posts, adequate for the weight, and the foundation is an extension of the house slab, so there were no issues structurally. 

We spent a lot of time in the summer enjoying the open air and great view from the porch, but were unable to use it except during temperate conditions - extreme heat or even moderately cold weather chased us inside.  In the summer of 2010, we started to think about our options to enclose the porch.
The porch, before any modifications.

The porch overlooks our dock - we also have a great view of the main lake!
Here's the house from the lake, as it was when we bought it.

The previous owners had put plastic on the porch screens in the winter.  Although this helped to keep it more comfortable in the winter, it was unacceptable to us - the plastic distorted the view, made noise in the wind, and looked tacky.  We decided that just wouldn't do.

The next thing we thought of was to install storm windows in the winter.  This would have the advantage of eliminating the distortion from the plastic, while providing a reasonably effective seal.  The down side of this would be the need to install and remove the windows in the spring and fall.  In addition, while evaluating windows, I discovered the cost, while not excessive, seemed too high for the benefits realized.

When I looked at storm windows, I stumbled on a web site selling vinyl windows.  Looking at these, it became apparent to me that these were only a little more expensive than the storms, and would result in a better finish.  For the first time, we started talking about really enclosing the porch, instead of just a temporary or partial job.

Before we got too far down the path, we contacted a local sun room company.  They had a unique window product that at first glance seemed to have some merit.  The window was a 4-section, collapsible design, that seemed very well-suited to our needs.  When completely open, it would maximize the open area, resulting in a room that was nearly as open to the air as the existing, 100% screened porch.  I was concerned that the window frames were very thin and flexible, and they used a plastic film in lieu of glass.  Despite the misgivings, we decided to get a quote on a complete enclosure.

Lake Sun Rooms was easy to work with for the estimate.  Their representative came out and discussed some options with us - we decided on wall panels with each section including windows of the maximum practical size for each opening.  They'd install all the panels, including doors in each end, cover the existing ceiling with aluminum soffit material, and wrap the support beams with aluminum.  Their quote included no electrical work, heat or air conditioning, or flooring.  The price for this was approximately $15,000.  To add the other things we'd need, I was sure we'd be looking at $20,000 minimum for the total project cost.  I decided to do some estimating on the cost of tackling the project myself.

After a lot of talking (arguing), Theresa and I decided on the following basic layout:
  • We'd use vinyl sliding windows, extending from about 20" above the floor to about 6" from the ceiling, along the lake side.
  • One end would have a sliding glass patio door (also white vinyl).
  • The other end would have a 32" walk-in door, along with a small window.  This end would also contain a small, through-the-wall heat pump, providing heat and air conditioning for the room.
  • The walls wold be drywall finished.
  • The ceiling would be vinyl or aluminum soffit material.
  • Outside, we'd use vinyl siding.
  • The floor would be ceramic tile.
We both agreed we should use quality products, but didn't need high-end materials, so we'd use "builder grade" windows and doors.  These products are reasonably energy-efficient, and should provide good service life in this application.  Likewise, we'd choose reasonably priced ceramic tile, avoiding the exotic styles that double (or more) the price without adding utility or durability.  When possible, we'd buy locally - unless there was a substantial savings from a different source.

To finish our plan, I'd need to select materials and gather approximate costs to assure us we could complete the work without breaking the bank.  I decided to get a rough cost estimate based on prices at the local Home Depot.  This made sense, mainly because they have virtually every component needed.  I developed a rough material list, then spent an afternoon wandering the store and writing down prices.  Since it was a only a rough number, I estimated - badly as it turned out - things like hardware, lighting, trim, paint, adhesives, etc.  Because my windows were all custom sizes, I got a formal quote - I used standard stock door prices.  When complete, my estimate was for around $6,000, excluding the heat pump.  Adding about $600 for that, we were well within our budget.  I assumed my estimate was 10% low, and we'd need to buy some furniture, so we were probably looking at about $8,000 or so for the whole job.  I'll report on how we did, budget wise, in the final summary post, but we were in the ballpark.

We had originally planned on starting the project right after the first of the year - we generally spend the week between Christmas and New Years at the lake, and I planned on doing the initial demo at that time.  Instead, mainly due to the slow real estate market that fall, we decided to start right after Labor Day, with the goal of having it ready by Spring.  Since the work wouldn't disturb the inside of the house (at least not much), we'd still be able to go to the lake over the winter.  I figured I'd do all of the work myself, but I actually ended up with some great help on a lot of the work - more about that in the next post.

In any case, I was determined to get it started, so I packed up and headed down to the lake near the end of September to get started.  I'll talk about the next stage - Demo and Framing, in a future post.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Act of Valor - Movie Review

A couple of weeks ago, we had the opportunity to see Act of Valor - the action movie starring active-duty Navy Seals.  I enjoy a good shoot-em-up action flick, and that's just what this is.  If your theatrical tastes tend towards 2 hours of non-stop action, check it out.  If you're looking for Citizen Kane, don't bother.

I've never been a gung-ho uber-patriot who thinks "our guys" are always right - honest, loyal, and true.  I admire our service men and women, but recognize we have our share of less than perfect soldiers.  That being said, the Navy Seals are like real-life super heroes.  If anything, this fictional story pales in comparison to the real-life assault on Osama Bin Laden's compound last year.  While I was watching the movie, I kept thinking, "This would be totally unbelievable, if I didn't know about Bin Laden". 

The movie plot revolves around the rescue of a captured spy (Roselyn Sanchez) in South America.  During the rescue, the team uncovers evidence of a terrorist plot aimed at the United States.  The rest of the movie follows the team's pursuit of the terrorists and their leaders.  Is the plot realistic?  I don't know, but the action feels real, and it certainly keeps your attention while it's happening.  Face it, you don't go to this movie for the plot, character development, or scenery.  This movie is about action, special effects, and patriotism.  On those fronts, it's a success.

As I mentioned, the action is virtually non-stop.  I didn't make any attempt to count the bodies, but they had to add up to quite a number.  The special effects - nothing ground-breaking here - don't distract from the action.  You'll have to decide if it's realistic, but it's certainly easier to think these guys can take out the terrorists than John McClane in Die Hard.  There's a lot of violence, but nothing too graphic - the torture scene early in the movie is largely off-screen.  You'll get to know the characters only superficially, but you'll identify with them and care about what happens to them.  There's a little humor, but not much - mostly you'll just have periods of intense action, followed by short stretches that move the plot along and allow you to catch your breath before the next firefight.

What stops this from being a great action movie is the thing that makes it unique - the stars are active duty Seals (they don't even list their full names in the credits).  Their performances are better than I would suspect, given their backgrounds, but they're not asked to do much.  The dialog is limited, and the plot, as I said above, is limited.  It's just not that kind of movie.  I made a reference to Die Hard above, but in reality, there's no comparison.  The action in the two movies is roughly comparable, but Die Hard has a more complex plot, better character development, and better acting (even with Bruce Willis).  Die Hard isn't a great movie, but it's a really good action movie.  Act of Valor is a decent action movie, but doesn't measure up to to the better examples of this genre.  Go see it, have a great time, be proud of our service men and women.  You won't buy it, and you won't watch it every time it's on TV, but you'll have a great time and walk out of the theater feeling proud and positive about our country.  If you're like me, you'll be glad these guys are on our team!

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

My New Fitness Buddy!

At one time not too many years ago, I was in pretty good shape.  4 or 5 mornings per week, I'd get up early and run anywhere from 3 to 6 miles.  On Sunday, I'd do my long run - somewhere between 6 and 20 miles, depending on my goals and fitness level.  I've always liked to eat, so I was never rail  thin, but I was reasonably lean and fit.  During this period of my life, I avoided the really bad foods, but didn't really worry about counting calories.

Unfortunately, a series of injuries has limited my ability to run long distances, and the resulting weight gain has made it harder yet to exercise.  I've fallen into some bad dietary habits, resulting in further weight, and even less exercise.  Lately, I've decided I need to get into a little better shape, so I'm trying to watch my diet and exercise at least a little more.

One tool I've discovered is a nifty web site - My Fitness Pal.  The web site syncs automatically with a free smart phone app, and tracks your diet and exercise.  There is a large database of food containing calorie counts and other nutritional information, including many restaurant menus.  If you can't find what you're looking for, it's easy to add foods on the fly.  You can save your common meals, and even input recipes to aid in measuring nutrition.  Best of all, it's free!

One thing I like about the software is it looks at both activity and food intake, lets you set a goal, then tells you how you're doing every day.  Obviously, the calories assigned to both food and exercise are estimated, but it gives you a reasonable approximation that helps keep you on track.  Just having to log your food makes you think about it, and you can see how exercising allows you to eat more (that won me over!).

There are some simple reports, displaying your caloric intake or weight loss graphically, but the biggest value is being able to measure your input and exercise.  It sets up a plan for you to lose one pound per week - a sensible weight loss. 

There's no such thing as a sure-fire weight loss trick.  It all comes down to controlling your diet and developing a habit of regular, fat-burning exercise.  Towards that end, My Fitness Pal can be an effective tool to help you modify your behavior.  If you're losing the "Battle of the Bulge", visit the web site, download the app, and give it a try.

Friday, March 2, 2012

How Smart is Your Dog?

When I was a kid, I read somewhere that a typical dog was about as intelligent as a 4 year old child.  Although it made sense to me at the time, I now see that it's clearly nonsense.  After having kids, I can tell you that a child of 4 is far ahead of even the smartest dog in reasoning ability and problem solving (not to mention the obvious difference in communication skills).  Today, some research indicates a canine intelligence level closer to that of a two year old child - that's better, but it really doesn't tell the whole story.

Before we can agree on how smart dogs are, we have to agree on how we define intelligence.  If being smart means you can memorize things, and learn new tasks, then many dogs are quite intelligent.  I tend to view intelligence more in terms of abstract learning - how well are they able to figure out new situations, or solve complex puzzles.

Almost all dogs can learn basic obedience commands, and most can learn even fairly complex tasks - and they're really good at picking up non-verbal cues and knowing what's going on.  No question about it, our canine friends can be very clever.  In other ways, however, dogs aren't so smart.  My all-time favorite dog may be Charlie.  She was a wonderful dog, very well-behaved, and mild-mannered.  She already knew most basic obedience commands when we got her, and quickly learned the others.  She could also be clever, at times - she knew how to open certain kinds of refrigerators, and could even get the cupboard open, if she was sufficiently motivated.  Some things, however, she just couldn't figure out.  Sometimes I'd come home with her in the car and let her out in the garage.  If the other car was pulled too far ahead so you couldn't get through in front, she NEVER could figure out that all she had to do was walk around the other way!   Others figure this out easily - Cassie (who still struggles to understand that every other dog on the street isn't a danger to her) just turns around and goes around the car.

Cassie is, in my opinion, one of the smarter dogs I've owned.  She caught on very quickly to obedience training, and understands more words than most dogs I've owned.  Virtually every night, she demonstrates how smart she is - when she wants to take Kodak's spot on the couch, she'll go to the door as though she wants out.  Kodak will immediately get up (he loves to go outside with her), so she'll just walk over and take the prize couch position.  Every night, same thing - he falls for it every time.  There's no question in my mind she knows what she's doing, and he never seems to figure it out.  Of the two, Cassie is clearly the more intelligent.

My daughter's dog, Jada, can be amazing at times.  Jada knows about presents (she unwraps her own Christmas gifts), and understands a lot of what you say.  She understands much of what you say, so you have to watch it when you're talking about Petsmart, the lake, or anything else she really likes.

I've never seen a correlation between dog intelligence and how much I like the dog.  Kodak is definitely no genius, but it would be hard to find a more pleasant dog to have around.  Cassie's really smart, and I think she's a great dog.  Patrick, a really dense Irish Setter I adopted when we were first married, was a wonderful dog.  I really liked our beagle Lucy, but she was a giant pain - probably because she was so smart.

The bottom line is this:  how intelligent your dog may be is difficult to determine, and makes very little difference anyway.   In this manner, it's very similar to kids.  I have little faith in the ability of standard tests to accurately measure intelligence, and don't view I.Q. levels as a valid prediction of personal worth or earning potential.  Loyalty, honesty, and integrity mean much more than numbers on a piece of paper, and I've certainly liked and respected plenty of people who wouldn't score highly in a test. 

Chances are, your dog is pretty smart.  Equivalent to a 4 year old child?  I doubt it.  Most likely, he's got a unique blend if instinct, brains, and training that allows him to function very well in his environment.  Dogs are not short, hairy, slow-witted kids - they are unique creatures with their own set of abilities.